Hybrid Warfare Tactics During the Los Angeles Wildfires
Why Those Weird Crimes During LA's Fire Crisis Might Not Be Random After All
As a security analyst with training in emergency response who studies hybrid warfare and threats to democracy, the unfolding events in LA County's January 2025 wildfires reveal a pattern that warrants careful examination. Hidden within the LA District Attorney's recent charging announcement against nine individuals lies evidence of what may be systematic probing of emergency response capabilities.
The criminal charges themselves, spanning arson, emergency responder impersonation, and unauthorized presence in evacuation zones, might appear as opportunistic crimes common during disasters, and were called out as such by District Attorney Nathan Hochman:
“To anyone who believes they can use this disaster as a cover for criminal activity, let this be your warning: You will be caught, and you will be held accountable,”
“The citizens of this county deserve safety and justice, especially in the wake of such unprecedented devastation, and I will not rest until we achieve both.”
However, a deeper analysis suggests more sophisticated activity.
What elevates these incidents beyond ordinary criminal opportunism is their orchestrated nature. Three distinct patterns emerge: First, multiple coordinated arson events targeted critical infrastructure and tested response times across jurisdictions, with perpetrators using Christmas trees as accelerants in separate but similar attacks. Second, law enforcement discovered an individual in an evacuation zone equipped with sophisticated reconnaissance tools including drones and emergency communications equipment. Third, and most concerning, was the arrest of a subject impersonating a firefighter while carrying first responder communications equipment–a tactic that aligns with hybrid warfare doctrine.
The geographic distribution of these incidents across LA County's diverse jurisdictions, from wealthy coastal enclaves like Malibu to working-class communities like South Gate, suggests an attempt to map variations in emergency response protocols. This systematic probing of different jurisdictions allows observers to understand how resources are allocated and how responses vary under stress.
These incidents mirror Russian hybrid warfare methodologies, which often exploit natural disasters to probe and undermine infrastructure and emergency response capabilities. The Institute for the Study of War notes that Russian hybrid warfare includes the use of significant conventional forces and conflict, defining it as a strategic-level effort to shape the governance and geostrategic orientation of a target state, with all actions subordinate to an information campaign.
The impersonation of first responders is particularly concerning.
A fact sheet from the Department of Homeland Security highlights that such impersonation presents not only a danger to public safety but also a potential threat to homeland security, as it can be exploited to gain unauthorized access to sensitive areas and information, conduct direct observation of command and control procedures, gain access to emergency communications networks, and identify key decision-makers during crisis response.
Here is a separate example of a suspicious individual gaining access to areas with which he seemed unfamiliar during this disaster.
The citizen who took the video and reported him to law enforcement had further things to say to TMZ about the suspicious nature of his engagement with the suspect.
It is unclear if the suspect has been charged with a crime as claimed in the video, as his identity is still unknown to the public.
While this analysis highlights potential patterns consistent with hybrid warfare methodologies, it is important to note that these interpretations are speculative and based on observed behaviors rather than direct evidence of coordinated state-sponsored activity.
If the latter is a true representation of the situation, the approach stems from what Russian military theorists call "reflexive control", which involves shaping an adversary's perceptions and decision-making processes to elicit desired responses. This tactic is especially effective during emergency situations when standardized response protocols can be anticipated and manipulated, as response protocols become more standardized under stress, making them easier to map and exploit. The Royal United Services Institute discusses how Russia employs such strategies to influence and destabilize target nations.
The presence of multiple actors with prior felony convictions engaging in coordinated activities raises additional concerns about potential exploitation by organized criminal networks or hostile state actors. What makes these tactics particularly effective is their plausible deniability. Criminal activity during natural disasters provides perfect cover for systematic intelligence gathering operations.
As climate change increases the frequency and severity of natural disasters, understanding these dynamics becomes crucial for protecting our emergency response infrastructure. The key lies in recognizing these systematic patterns of probing, and developing effective countermeasures that preserve our emergency response capabilities even while under deliberate stress testing.